Yesterday (January 17), U.S. retail data for December recorded a 0.6% increase, exceeding the expected 0.4%. This once again dampened market expectations for a Fed rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trend, with the ten-year yield briefly surpassing the 4.1% mark, closing at 4.086%. The two-year yield returned to above 4.3%, reporting at 4.327%. Consequently, the three major U.S. stock indices were under pressure and closed lower, with the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ falling by 0.25%, 0.56%, and 0.59% respectively. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated signs of a cooling labor market across various regions.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView

Digital currencies have entered their fifth day of sideways trading, with BTC experiencing a maximum intraday swing of only about 1%. The implied volatility is generally accelerating downwards, with ETH’s front-end volatility plummeting by 8 to 10% Vol, dropping to a level comparable with BTC. In terms of trading, BTC’s Call Spread represented by 23 FEB 24 56000 vs 65000 still occupies a large portion of the volume. In addition, over the past 24 hours, several large long positions have been traded on 19 JAN 24 and 26 JAN 24 at 40000-P, offering protection against a downturn scenario at relatively low volatility price levels. ETH’s trading volume ratio has risen sharply, with the largest being the purchase of 29 JAN 24 2550-C and the sale of 29 MAR 24 2900-C triangular price spreads, with a single leg transaction volume reaching 25,000 ETH.

Source: Deribit (As of 18 JAN 08: 00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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