Last Friday (19 JAN), the U.S. annual inflation rate expectation for January was recorded at 2.8%, the lowest level since 2020. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was higher than expected at 78.8, the highest since July 2021. In the past few days, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated slightly at recent highs, with the two-year/ten-year yields respectively at 4.395% / 4.113%. On the other hand, influenced by relatively hawkish remarks from several Fed officials and strong data, the market expectation for the Fed not to cut rates in March has been raised to 56.8%. The upcoming February 1st FOMC meeting is considered a key moment for the Fed’s stance. Core data this week, including PMI and PCE, will also have a significant impact on the content of the next meeting.
In the realm of digital currencies, Bitcoin’s price has continued to decline due to persistent selling pressure from GBTC, breaking below the $41,000 mark. The front-end Implied Volatility has slightly increased, with the curve flattening. There has been relatively unremarkable activity in bulk transactions, but the Risky Flow of buying puts and selling calls, represented by the 26 JAN 24 expiration, remains a popular operation among retail investors. The P/C Ratio of ETH trading volume reached a low of 0.15 at the recent delivery point, with significant bulk purchases of 2 FEB 24–2550-C (Size: 23950 ETH) and 29 MAR 24–2700-C (Size: 17717 ETH) becoming the focus of the market.
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