Yesterday (February 15), U.S. retail sales for January recorded a month-on-month rate of -0.8%, lower than the expected -0.1%. Following the release of the data, the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly fell below 4.2% but later rebounded, currently reported at 4.267%. The yield on two-year bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate policies, returned above 4.6%, reported at 4.607%. The Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones each closed up 0.3%, 0.58%, and 0.91%, respectively.
Despite Chicago Fed President Goolsbee soothing market sentiments after the unexpectedly high CPI figures in January, a report by Jinshi states that yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic mentioned in a discussion that the Federal Reserve might not be in a hurry to cut interest rates due to the still strong U.S. labor market and economy. He warned that it is currently unclear whether inflation will progress towards the Fed’s 2% target. His expectation is that the inflation rate will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than what market bets might suggest.
In the realm of digital currencies, the bullish sentiment towards BTC quickly weakened as it approached the $52,000 mark, with the price maintaining slight fluctuations (-0.08%) over the past 24 hours. This caused the implied volatility curve for options, including ETH, to steepen, with front-end declines of about 1.5–2.5% Vol. From the trading distribution, one can observe the play of a 23FEB 52000 vs 48000 Put Spread, where selling pressure slightly outweighs, while on the longer end, there still exists large bullish strategy positions represented by a 29MAR24 65000 vs 75000 Call Spread (720BTC per leg). On the other hand, ETH’s upward momentum continues, closing up at 2819.22 (+1.53%) for the day. Around 23FEB 2300/2500 and 1MAR 2650, there were numerous closeout orders for in-the-money call options to stop losses.
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