Yesterday (May 6), the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher under the favorable conditions of warming risk sentiment, with the yield on the ten-year Treasury falling below the 4.5% mark. According to Jinshi report, Thomas Barkin, the president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, believes that the full impact of the interest rate hikes has not yet fully materialized. He is confident that the current restrictive interest rate levels are sufficient to curb demand. Additionally, the latest bank lending survey from the Federal Reserve shows that more banks tightened lending standards in the first quarter.
In terms of digital currency, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF saw positive inflows for two consecutive days, with total daily increases across the market of $378M and $217M respectively, with FBTC contributing most of the flow. Looking at the coin prices, BTC briefly broke through $65,000 after the options settlement yesterday, but soon retreated to $63,000 when the RSI index just showed overbought signals. Today, after the settlement, it broke through $64,000 again.
In terms of options, the implied volatility levels significantly declined after the price retraced from its peak, with the front-end IV for BTC/ETH falling by about 5%. Looking at the curve from the ATM, the tenor curve for BTC has steepened, while ETH has maintained a local high on May 24, 2024. It is important to re-emphasize the potential uncertainty and risks associated with the decisions on May 23 and May 30 by the U.S. SEC regarding the VanEck ETH Spot ETF and Grayscale ETH Futures.
In terms of trading, ETH tradings concentrated on the selling of front-end bullish strategies, notably the Sell 3250 vs Buy 3400 bullish price spread strategy formed on 17 MAY, with cumulative volumes nearing 12,000 contracts. For BTC, the largest transaction was a calendar bullish price spread strategy involving the purchase of 26 JUL 24–85000-C (500 BTC) coupled with the sale of 28 MAR 25–200000-C (500 BTC). Due to the distant strike price of the selling leg, the overall cost was only about 1.45 BTC.
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