Over the past day, BTC prices have been on a steady rise, peaking at over $66,000 at one point. Spot ETF inflows hit $422 million in a single day, marking the highest since June, and cumulative inflows have surpassed $1 billion over the last three days. This trend signals growing investor confidence and heightened institutional interest in investment.
Meanwhile, Kraken has initiated the distribution of $3.1 billion in cryptocurrency (BTC/BCH) compensation to Mt. Gox creditors, a process expected to unfold gradually over the next 7–14 days. Despite this significant distribution, the potential sell-off pressure it might induce is being counterbalanced by support from institutional investors, which has helped to stabilize BTC prices. It’s worth noting that this sell-off is voluntary on the part of creditors, differing from the German government’s mandated sell-off plan, and as a result, its impact on prices is anticipated to be less severe than initially feared.
On the ETH front, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially announced preliminary approval for Ethereum spot ETFs for asset management firms such as BlackRock and VanEck, with trading slated to commence next Tuesday (July 23). This announcement has further bolstered the digital currency market, prompting traders to purchase a substantial number of call options expiring after the end of July, while concurrently selling call options expiring on 19JUL24 (prior to the start of ETH Spot ETF trading), thereby creating a calendar spread strategy.
From a volatility perspective, the mid-to-long end IV levels have significantly increased over the past 24 hours. The trend of a flattening BTC term IV curve has become more pronounced, with IV for August and September reaching high levels above 60%, surpassing the 75th percentile of historical values over the past three months. The IV vs RV chart also shows that 30-day and 60-day IV has risen sharply, indicating a substantial volatility premium compared to RV.
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