The Powell Pivot is upon us! Jackson Hole was great for risk and bearish for vols but now what happens? The market is enjoying one last week of summer holidays while it makes up its mind.
Trade Highlights
Sell a 25OCT BTC 55k/50k PS and Buy a 72k Call paying 0.3% (spot 59,200).
- Volatility is cheap and wings are cheaper. If spot breaks new highs the 72k Call will be….gold
- Powell has shown has hand and will cut aggressively if there are macro issues, supporting assets
- BTC has lagged broader tech, risk assets, and gold so this is a catchup play
- This buys pre-election exposure which is the cheapest version of the election variance
Trade Structure
BUY 1x BTC-25OCT24-50000-P @ $1,370
SELL 1x BTC-25OCT24-55000-P @ $2,739
BUY 1x BTC-25OCT24-72000-C @ $1,552
Net Debit: $183
This note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The trade ideas are based on our analysis of the markets and their participants. They should not be construed as personalized advice tailored to your specific financial situation. We strongly encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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