Market
BTC fell to the $40,500 level on Monday after trading sideways over the weekend. People were scared. It then began a rebound in the US session and reached $43,000. This area has previously encountered a lot of resistance, so a clear breakout would be significant. Of course, I’m not yet sure if $40,500 is a potential bottom for BTC, but I think it’s close. If BTC completely breaks out of the important level ($41,500-$42,000), it is a bearish sign and we recommend waiting a little longer.
Most of the higher funding fees have been reset. We were provided with a good flush. Some altcoins continue to show good gains. BTC trend continues to hold. I don’t think it’s a level of concern yet. I still expect BTC to go higher than it is now, and although it may take some time, I believe the final destination is set.
Volatility
Volatility has been lower over the past week, as mentioned in my previous analysis. By failing to break $44,000, buyers were exhausted and I thought we had reached a temporary top. Additionally, volatility generally tends to be lower as the end of the year approaches. And people’s doubts about spot ETFs as the expected approval date approaches. Considering everything, we judged that it would be difficult for volatility to increase unless Vol buyers appear again.
The IV went a little higher today. Yesterday, there were large buyers of 12/29 $38,000 put options at BTC $41,000, and today, as BTC rose, there were buyers of 12/29 47-48-49k call options. It’s not a huge amount, but your IV instantly goes up by 2 points. Call wing prices are lower than before and good timing for that.
BTC IV is holding steady overall. However, given that positive news about the ETF continues to emerge, and the odds of ETF approval in January 2024 are increasing, I think BTC price and January IV will continue to gradually increase through that period.
I still think BTC will reach $47,000-$48,000. And considering the possibility that the spot ETF news could be a buying event + overshooting and FOMO, I think the possibility of a rise to the $52,000 level is also on the table, although we cannot know exactly what will happen in the future. 1/12 or 1/26 call option may be a good choice for trading ETF news events. Currently, you can trade 1/12 ETF options on Coincall.
Crypto News
1.Celsius
Celsius is selling assets and this could have an impact on the market. According to An Ape’s Prologue tweet (https://x.com/apes_prologue/status/1737148643692449986), Celsius sold $243 million worth of ETH over the past 30 days and still has $3.94 billion worth of digital assets remaining. Of these, 84% are said to be BTC and ETH.
2. Mt.Gox
There is news about Gox, but I am not sure how it will progress and there is too little information, so I did not add details to the article. Gox FUD has always been there, but it won’t be a good thing if it leads to additional selling pressure. If you are interested, please look for information!
Macro Event
There is no big news this week except for the PCE which is released on Friday. The impact of macro news events is expected to be limited.
As always, NFA/DYOR
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