There was nothing surprising in the FOMC minutes released yesterday, other than the clear signal that a rate cut is near. The Fed said they would continue to monitor the data, but disinflation is still ongoing and the labor market is not overheating. I think the Fed is in a good position to start cutting rates in the current Goldilocks situation without a recession. 25bp/50bp is not yet certain, but I think the Fed will cut 25bp.

The biggest revision in labor market data since 2008. 242,000 > 174,000. This was probably the biggest macro event yesterday. In my opinion, this is a nothing event. The US still added 174,000 jobs…

Following Walmart last week, Target also had a good performance this week. Despite people’s recession anxiety, consumption appears very healthy and solid.

DXY continues to decline and seems to be pricing in the September rate cut. BTC is moving sideways in a range, but the structure is starting to look good. The current pattern of slightly higher lows and highs is positive. A strong rally above 62k is needed. There could be significant volatility this week with the main macro events being claims on Thursday and Jackson Hole on Friday, but if BTC maintains the current structure, 63k+ looks possible. As with last week, I would not want to take a short position in this environment. Don’t add too many positions to the resistance.

In Polymarket, the odds of Harris winning are falling, and the odds of Trump are rising. Remember Trump is definitely positive on BTC and crypto. Harris also appears to have expressed support for crypto… Crypto clearly appears to be at the center of the 2024 US presidential election. Expect more clear policies as we get closer to the actual election date.

13F Update – Q2 2024 saw an increase in institutional inflows into BTC overall, with the “Investment Advisors” category seeing the largest increase. I see all of this as an increase in people’s interest in BTC and am optimistic about it.

NFA DYOR

<Source : TradingView, The Transcript, Daily Chartbook, Bloomberg, Coinbase, Polymarket>

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