Hello, it’s the beginning of September!
The third quarter is coming to an end and it’s time for everyone to get back to their desks. This week is likely to be dominated by a lot of macro data. From ISM to NFP to unemployment… it’s scary. But the most important data is probably the unemployment rate on Friday. The market is likely to be volatile this week. However, I’m not making any big predictions on macro data and will be evaluating the market based on the data that comes out. I believe the economy is still resilient and growing. I think you might find last week’s article helpful.
Chang’s Thought（2024.08.27）：Puzzle Pieces – Coincall Academy
During the 3-day holiday period including Labor Day in the US, BTC was slowly falling. Everyone said it was over and BTC bounced from my main point. Now the important thing is how long this bounce lasts and if the trend can change. The volume is continuously decreasing so it seems like a real move is coming soon. The first resistance will probably be $61,000-$62,000. It will not be easy to make an uptrend as Binance sell wall is continuously building. If the current uptrend is successful and a HH structure can be made above $65,000, I would consider BTC to have made a successful trend reversal. $64,000-$65,000 are key levels for a trend reversal. The opposite is the case if it is weak below the green point on the chart, $58,000-$57,000. If that situation continues, it seems very important to have a defensive position with a clear bearish signal. Any outcome is possible, but I’m expecting a bounce to $61,000+.
This week, there are many major macro events that can reflect the FOMC’s results in advance, as described above. I’m looking forward to seeing what kind of movement there will be.
We are now entering a very important period with 2 months left until the US presidential election. From now on, there are likely to be more important statements for the president to be elected. The market currently does not have a strong narrative. That is why it seems important to continue to watch the Trump-Harris race. Also, September 10th is the first Trump vs. Harris debate. The options market does not seem to have much expectation for the debate at the moment, but considering Harris’s lack of debate skills, there is a possibility that Trump’s victory probability will increase after the debate. I consider September 10th to be a significant date.
NFA DYOR
<Source : TradingView, TensorChart, Deribit, Greekslive, Polymarket>
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