There were no special issues this week, so let’s take a quick look at the current market.
Bitcoin
Nothing seems to have changed much from last week. Will it show an upward movement of 70K+ or a downward movement to 64-65K? In the meantime, BTC showed a downward movement to 65K first. Despite the volatile market situation with the US presidential election approaching and [stock market decline + yield increase], BTC looks quite stable. It is not yet clear whether this is the end of the adjustment or not, but it seems that continuously defending 64-65K will be a very important point for the Bulls. If there are no special variables, it is more likely that the market will move according to the chart rather than the macro this week.
The 200DMA is at 63K, but if BTC falls below 65K, it looks like it will be unstable.
Key levels: [64-65K], [62-63K] / 67K holding bullish.
It seems like no one is positive about ETH, but I am currently looking at the ETH chart to see the extent of the market correction. It’s possible I’m looking at the wrong chart haha. ETH appears to have lost a lot of trust from people due to its poor performance… If we are heading towards a true bull market, I think ETH should not fall any further and should stick to its current structure.
ES
ES looks very simple. The levels are clear. With the US election approaching, VIX is still high and stocks are under pressure from rising yields. There are two levels that can provide support, although it looks quite risky in the LTF structure. I don’t think there will be a big decline in stocks at the moment, as I think yields are close to a short-term peak. It would be best to hold yesterday’s low.
Yield
10Y showed a big rise from 3.6% to 4.2%. There is a lot of debate in the market about the yield. [Trump effect, inflation, US debt problem, recession unwind, etc.] There are various reasons for the rise in the yield that each person thinks. I believe that the yield reflects various factors currently being discussed, such as inflation expectations and the Trump effect, and considers the possibility that it may have peaked in the short term unless there are additional factors. Additionally, I expect next week’s PCE announcement to be positive for the market. However, if the 10Y shows an additional steep upward movement from here, it will definitely lead to a bearish stock market. It is a time to be careful, but I will not be too scared.
Overall, the market feels like there is a sense of caution about the uncertainty of the US presidential election. Waiting for the PCE and NFP events to be announced next week… See you next week 🙂
NFA DYOR
Comments