TRUMP

As I wrote in my article a few weeks ago, Trump is pretty serious about crypto. There have been some positive news stories.

  • Trump Media, Considering Acquisition of BAKKT Exchange
  • White House, Considers First Crypto Dedicated Position
  • CBOE to Launch BTC Cash Settlement Option on December 2nd
  • IBIT Option Approval
  • Gensler Fired

Trump was not lying about his crypto pledges as I expected. If this trend continues, the long-term implications for TradFi will be huge. This is already evident through the BTC ETF.

BTC

The BTC situation looks very optimistic. It has shown a bigger rally than I expected last week. Continued strong BTC ETF inflows. IBIT options have been a hot choice in the market with an IV 10% higher than Deribit on the first day of trading. The majority of the weighting was in call options. A clear signal seen by TradFi. BTC is now clearly not a scam and is recognized as one of the great assets in the world. It is definitely following the big picture path I have been talking about since 2023. The key is not ‘yes/no’ but ‘when’.

Currently BTC is close to $100,000. I won’t make too many predictions here. If there is a pullback here, $88,000-$89,000, which showed strong volume in the weekly candle, seems to be the first support level. Also 4H 100MA. Whether BTC price declines from here or continues to rise, I still expect it to hit $100,000-$110,000 by December.

The order book situation shows that $100,000 is a very symbolic level. There are far more sell orders than the $75,000 level. The $100,000 sell order may not be a spoof, as there is currently some profit taking on-chain data. Whether or not this is a spoof, it is clear that this is a psychologically/technically significant level. It will require continued monitoring. I think it will eventually break through.

ETH

I still have high expectations for ETH. Considering the situation in 2021, the period in which ETH outperformed BTC began in late December or January. I feel like the ETHBTCLONGS chart is saying that the ETH rally has not even started yet. Of course, past performance does not represent the present, and it is true that ETH’s position has narrowed compared to before due to some projects including SOL, but RR looks great compared to other assets. I think a break of $4000 level will be a signal that a big rally is starting.

SOL

SOL has made a new ATH and is clearly the best altcoin for the 2023-2024 season. One of the three brothers (BTC, ETH, SOL) that I have been talking about since the 2023 season. Retail’s big darling. It is true that a pullback seems possible, but the SOLBTC chart looks very strong. If there is a pullback, $210 seems like a good buy level. If the 2025 season becomes an altcoin season, SOL is definitely expected to be one of the coins that perform well.

ALT

Altcoins haven’t really started yet. OTHERS.D, which I have been talking about continuously for two weeks, appears to be preparing for a turn to the upside while continuing to hold on to major lows. I feel like retail is coming back little by little. Overall, the market is in a very good state, and with BTC.D possibly turning bearish, I think there’s a possibility that the altcoin season will open soon.

USDT.D

I use USDT.D to see how far the overall trend has progressed in the big picture. It is currently near the low of March 2024. So far, it has progressed well as expected, and now it seems to be important. If the market has a pullback overall, it could touch 4.7%, and if it continues the trend like March 2024, it could go strong to 3.1%-2.5%.

At present, it seems difficult to predict whether it will rise or fall. Maintain the assets you own, take profits at an appropriate level, and buy more if there is a pullback. I plan to respond rationally.

NFA DYOR

<Source: Material Indicators, TensorCharts>

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