Bitcoin ended August with an 8.6% drop, and as September begins, the market is turning its attention to seasonal trends. Over the past six years, statistics show that BTC has averaged a 4.5% decline in September. If this pattern holds, BTC could fall to $55,000, with strong support expected around $54,000.

From a short-term perspective, BTC briefly dropped to a one-week low two days ago, finding support near $57,000 before bouncing back to around $59,000. Implied volatility showed a negative correlation with the price, and after today’s rebound, the term structure steepened. The front end gave back 2–3% of the gains, putting it slightly below the three-month median and roughly in line with Hourly RV. Not much opportunity is seen in the VPR.

Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY, 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus, term structure steepened.

From a Vol Skew perspective, the far end remains elevated due to long-term bullish sentiment, while the positive correlation between short-to-mid-term Risky and price movements is notable. However, it’s important to point out that yesterday’s price action between BTC and ETH showed a marked divergence. On a macro level, significant outflows from BTC ETFs, the negative shift in the Coinbase Premium Index signaling selling pressure, and declining miner profits have all cast a shadow over market sentiment. In terms of flow, short-term bullish demand for ETH has helped drive up the Risky premium. While long-term bullish buy orders for BTC remain, the selling pressure on the front-end Top Side Wing, triggered by the recent price rise, has undoubtedly suppressed the growth in its Skew.

Source: SignalPlus, Risky rebounded.
Data Source: Deribit, BTC vs ETH trading distribution comparison.
Data Source: Deribit, BTC vs ETH trading distribution comparison.
Source: SignalPlus，Block Trade

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