Yesterday (March 12), the overall U.S. CPI data unexpectedly rebounded, with the majority of components showing growth. The core CPI annual rate still far exceeds the Federal Reserve’s target. U.S. Treasury yields collectively moved higher, with the current two-year/ten-year yields at 4.611% / 4.162%, respectively. The swap market expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as June (with a probability of 63%). Risk assets overall moved upwards, with the three major stock indices rising. The Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq increased by 0.61%, 1.12%, and 1.54%, respectively.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView, In the evening UTC, BTC/ETH experienced a significant price fluctuation.

Data from BitMEX Research shows that net inflows to BTC ETFs reached an astonishing $1 billion yesterday (12 MAR), with Blackrock’s IBIT accounting for $849 million of the flow. However, at the end of this record-breaking day, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with BTC dropping from 73,000 to 68,000 (a fluctuation of approximately 6.36%), before gradually reclaiming all lost ground and setting a new historical high.

In terms of options, the implied volatility for far end BTC options has been gradually increased over the past few days, with medium to long-term volatility reaching levels close to 80% Vol. Trades mainly consisted of profit-taking orders for call options near the at-the-money level and rolling to higher strike prices of 80,000/85,000 buy orders, mostly concentrated towards the end of March, pushing up the Vol Skew near this term. For ETH, the Vol Skew is at a recent historical low, with the overall transaction distribution showing a Long Risky Flow, mainly consisting of 4,000 & 3,200 short puts and 5,000/5,400 and above long calls.

Source: Deribit （As of 13 MAR 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit
Data Source: Deribit
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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