Yesterday, U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, gradually recovering some ground after the Asian market opened, with the two-year/ten-year yields now reported at 4.377%/3.886%. The three major U.S. stock indices ended lower, with both the Dow and Nasdaq’s nine-day winning streak coming to an end, falling 1.27%/1.5% respectively, and the S&P closed down 1.47%. On the other hand, due to unexpected increases in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, larger-than-expected increases in fuel inventories, and record oil production, international oil prices made a correction, with WTI and Brent crude closing down 0.53%/0.24%.
Cryptocurrency prices continued to rise today, with BTC showing a trend of challenging the $45,000 resistance level again. However, from the perspective of options, its implied volatility curve has not changed much. In contrast, ETH IV fell after a day’s lag and approached BTC, with the front-end IV reversing to negative compared to BTC. In terms of trading, BTC’s volume was unusually dominated by large butterfly strategies. Specifically, the Short 40000–55000–80000 Fly in June next year involved closing a profit on 40000-C while continuing to build a bullish spread, and the Long 45000–47500–50000 Fly at the end of December started with buying 45000-C, simultaneously selling 47500-C upward, and buying 50000-C for extreme market protection. ETH’s trading hotspots mainly focused on the bearish strategy game of 5Jan 2100/2050-P vs 26Jan 1600-P, where the total volume of trades selling short-term Puts was about twice that of the other side.
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