Last Friday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic gave a speech indicating that he expects only one rate cut in 2024, which would occur later this year. He mentioned being “less confident” about inflation continuing to move towards the 2% target compared to December last year. The market has started to consider the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates later, with the dollar index continuing to strengthen, currently at 104.33. The ten-year Treasury yield slightly rebounded after falling below 4.2%, reporting at 4.235%, while the two-year yield fluctuated slightly above 4.6%, reporting at 4.621%. This week, the market will focus on the new round of PCE data to be released by the US on Friday, revealing the recent trajectory of inflation.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar, the US PCE data is coming
Source: Binance & TradingView

In the realm of cryptocurrencies, the price of BTC rebounded from 63,000 to around 67,000 but has yet to break through the fluctuation range of the past week. A significant sell-off of bullish options occurred at the end of March, with a similar situation observed for ETH. Meanwhile, the Implied Volatility for both currencies saw a decline at the beginning of April, forming a local IV trough.

On the other hand, purchasing April put options at 68,000 & 60,000 became the hot spot in the BTC market over the past 24 hours. In contrast, for ETH, a bullish strategy for April has been the main theme of the past day, with transactions focusing on buying at strike prices around 3,800/3,900.

Source: Deribit （As of 25 MAR 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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