Last Friday, the US economic data was strong, with the overall core PCE in December increasing by 0.17% month-over-month, and existing home sales recording one of the strongest monthly increases in history outside of the Covid period. This initially caused US Treasury yields to rise, but most of the gains were given back in the past two days. Currently, the two-year and ten-year yields are at 4.324% and 4.099% respectively. This week will be the busiest of the year in terms of macroeconomic developments, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday in US local time. Although the market has fully priced in the expectation of no rate hike this time, there is still considerable interest in the data to be released before the meeting, such as the ADP, as well as the Federal Reserve’s statements during the interview process.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC has been rising continuously since rebounding from below 40,000, briefly breaking through 42,000 on Saturday and then stabilizing near that level. In terms of options, the ATM Vol for contracts expiring before 23 February remains relatively flat, with both BTC and ETH around 40% Vol.

From trading perspective, the price rebound has not stimulated a return in trading volume, with the total market volume over the past 24 hours being only around 700 million. BTC transactions are evenly distributed across expiry dates up to and including 23 February, showing a positive Risky Flow. It’s also notable that the recent 25dRR for BTC has moved from negative values to near zero. ETH transactions are concentrated in an option chain strategy involving buying 24 February 2400-C and selling 29 March 2700-C, creating a triangular price difference strategy, with single-leg trade exceeding 13,000 ETH.

Source: Deribit (As of 29JAN 08:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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